OpenAI rules out a 2026 IPO, Anthropic targets adjusted profit: what it means for SoftBank and Baillie Gifford

Two private companies sent two apparently contradictory messages within 48 hours. OpenAI says safety makes a 2026 listing ill-timed. Anthropic reportedly told investors it expects a second consecutive quarter of positive adjusted operating income. A shareholder in SoftBank or either Baillie Gifford trust should choose neither optimism nor alarm: the useful task is to follow how each signal travels through the portfolio.

OpenAI and Anthropic are unlisted. Their news nevertheless reaches three securities that trade on public markets. SoftBank Group carried OpenAI at a $89.6 billion fair value at 30 June. Baillie Gifford US Growth had 6.61% of gross assets in Anthropic. Scottish Mortgage had 2.76% of its portfolio in the company.

The weekend therefore moved three variables at once. Reported profitability can support the credibility of a private valuation. The safety debate can slow development or tighten regulation. A later IPO also delays the moment when a public price and a possible route to liquidity may emerge.

What the reader owns, before discussing artificial intelligence

SoftBank Group is a Japanese investment holding company, not to be confused with the telecom operator SoftBank Corp. Its assets include Arm, OpenAI, technology funds and other holdings. OpenAI's fair value was $89.6 billion at 30 June. Converted at SoftBank's ¥153.74 per dollar rate, that is about ¥13,775 billion, or 16.6% of the group's ¥83,110 billion of adjusted holdings.

That percentage is an Opulion calculation, not a ratio reported by SoftBank. It brings a dollar value and a yen portfolio to the same date and exchange rate. It shows the concentration order of magnitude. It is neither a sale price nor available cash.

Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust and Scottish Mortgage are London-listed closed-end funds. Their shares provide public-market access to portfolios combining listed companies and private businesses. Their share price can differ from NAV, which simply means the estimated value of everything they own after debt.

At US Growth, Anthropic was worth £63.46 million and represented 6.61% of gross assets. This makes the trust more sensitive in percentage terms. Scottish Mortgage's two Anthropic lines totalled £460.32 million and 2.76% of the portfolio. The relative weight is lower, but the sterling exposure is more than seven times larger.

This ownership map is the starting point. Without it, the labs' news is a technology story. With it, the same news becomes a question of value, liquidity and financing for three listed investment companies.

The first signal: OpenAI no longer promises a 2026 IPO

In a Fortune interview published on 12 September, Sam Altman said a listing would be ill-timed amid current safety concerns and would not happen before 2027. He also said he could slow or stop development if the systems could not be built safely.

Precision matters. OpenAI did not cancel a formally launched offer: there was no public prospectus, price or firm timetable. The new fact is that its chief executive explicitly closes the 2026 window and places safety ahead of rapid liquidity.

For SoftBank this matters twice. An IPO could provide a public reference price for a major private asset. It could also create, after any lock-up, an option to monetise or finance the holding. Deferring that step keeps OpenAI in a private valuation regime for longer while SoftBank commits real cash to AI.

Our analysis of SoftBank's first quarter already showed the gap: fair-value gains can lift the balance-sheet value without funding cash outlays themselves. The delayed IPO extends that tension; it does not automatically destroy OpenAI's value.

The second signal: Anthropic reportedly crossed an adjusted-profit threshold

The Financial Times reports that Anthropic told investors it expected positive adjusted operating income for a second consecutive quarter. According to the newspaper, the measure excludes stock-based compensation. It also reports $11.5 billion of second-quarter revenue and a gross margin above 80% before revenue sharing and training costs.

These are reported figures, not public audited accounts. Anthropic has published neither a complete income statement nor a cash-flow statement or detailed reconciliation of that adjusted measure. Calling the company profitable without a qualifier would therefore be misleading.

Why does the threshold matter to trust shareholders? A richly valued private company is easier to support if its economics begin producing an observable margin. Yet an adjusted measure removes neither valuation risk nor illiquidity nor the special rights attached to preferred shares.

Our article on Anthropic's possible IPO explained why the prospectus would matter more than a headline valuation. Our analysis of US Growth versus Saba addressed the other side of the problem: offering cash near NAV is difficult when the most attractive assets cannot be sold immediately. Reported adjusted profitability may improve the holding's economic quality; it does not yet create the liquidity required for a shareholder exit.

Safety and profitability are not separate stories

Anthropic has published a policy framework calling for more testing, transparency, independent evaluation and public authority to block the most dangerous deployments. It targets developers above specified compute, revenue or research-spending thresholds.

Those proposals can have three very different economic effects:

1. Additional cost. Evaluation, security, documentation and compliance consume resources. 2. Slower deployment. A delayed or blocked release postpones revenue and infrastructure utilisation. 3. A barrier to entry. Companies able to bear those requirements may strengthen their position against less well-capitalised rivals.

The debate is therefore not simply safety versus growth. For indirect shareholders, the right question is whether safety permanently reduces economic value or becomes a condition for making that value sustainable and acceptable to clients, regulators and markets.

Why SoftBank's decline is not a measurement of OpenAI's decline

Associated Press reports that SoftBank shares lost 10.7% on 14 September, in a session when several AI-linked stocks fell. The move is material. It does not establish that OpenAI is worth 10.7% less.

SoftBank's share price incorporates Arm, OpenAI, holding-company debt, other investments, financing expectations and a discount or premium specific to the stock. One trading session measures the price at which investors exchange the whole package, not a certified new fair value for each private asset.

For SoftBank the effect can be amplified by OpenAI's size and the funding needs of the wider AI strategy. At US Growth and Scottish Mortgage it is filtered through Anthropic's portfolio weight, the other assets and each trust's discount.

What can now be measured, and what remains unknown

The new facts do not provide one answer. They improve the list of questions that can be tested.

At OpenAI, watch the real IPO timetable, the next financing, compute spending and the effect of safety commitments on deployment. Until a prospectus exists, transparency will remain far below the holding's importance to SoftBank.

At Anthropic, investors need the full definition of adjusted operating income, cash flow, net compute cost after commercial agreements and the valuation adopted by each trust. The vehicles may own different classes; one headline company valuation does not guarantee the same economic return.

Across all three listed vehicles, value must be separated from liquidity. A higher fair value can lift NAV without giving the board an asset it can sell tomorrow. An IPO can create a public price without immediately releasing existing shares. A holding company's share price can also fall more than its NAV when the market demands a larger margin of safety.

The weekend did not set good Anthropic news against bad OpenAI news. It showed that a private asset runs on three clocks: economics, safety and liquidity.

For SoftBank shareholders, the issue is how long $89.6 billion of OpenAI value remains private while investments require cash. For US Growth shareholders, Anthropic is large enough to move NAV directly. At Scottish Mortgage, the percentage is smaller but the £460 million exposure represents a significant future liquidity option.

The next useful step will not be another AI slogan. It will be a document that finally connects adjusted profit, cash, security rights and the path to liquidity.