GBL: the discount rises back to 28.3%, and the market would pay 42 cents per euro of unlisted assets

On 5 November, GBL reported net asset value of €99.21 per share at 30 September 2026, for a share price of €71.10. The discount, the gap between the two, reaches 28.3%. At 30 June, it was 20.9%. In one quarter, the share price fell 10.8% while net asset value per share fell 1.5% (Opulion calculation on the two reporting dates).

Read alone, the figure looks like a relapse. Read as a series, it says something else: the discount is back almost exactly at its 31 December 2025 level, 27.9%, and at its 30 September 2025 level, 27.5%. It was the first half of 2026 that stood out, with 22.1% at 31 March.

A discount remains an average. It applies to a portfolio which, at GBL, has changed in nature in nine months: the unlisted share rose from 45.7% to 49.9% (Opulion calculation). The useful question then becomes: on which half does the discount fall?

A discount back at its December level

GBL compares its closing share price with its net asset value per share on the same reporting date. Five published reporting dates give the series.

Between 30 June and 30 September, net asset value per share went from €100.77 to €99.21, and the share price from €79.70 to €71.10. The listed part of the portfolio weighed: the adidas stake fell from €1,140m to €924m, Pernod Ricard from €1,101m to €1,046m, while Imerys rose from €980m to €1,050m. The share price fell about seven times as much as net asset value per share.

What a shareholder owns for €71.10

GBL counts its treasury shares both in its assets, at their market price (€840m), and in the number of shares that divides those assets. To see what a shareholder owns, it is better to remove them on both sides. That leaves 118.0 million shares outstanding (Opulion calculation: 129.8 − 11.8 million) and €102.0 of net asset value per share (Opulion calculation: (12,878 − 840) / 118.0).

The listed shares, SGS, Imerys, Pernod Ricard, adidas, Recordati and a few small stakes, are worth €53.3 per share at 30 September prices. The directly held unlisted companies, Affidea, Sanoptis, BUKO, Rayner, Voodoo, Canyon and Parques Reunidos, are worth €44.5 according to GBL's estimates. GBL Capital, funds and co-investments that GBL classifies among its non-core assets held for sale, is worth €8.2.

Where the discount sits

The following calculation is an Opulion reading, not a GBL figure. It starts from the market capitalisation, €9,229m at 30 September, and removes what the stock market itself values every day: the listed shares held, at their market price (€6,289m), and the treasury shares (€840m). It adds back the net debt (€517m), which any buyer of GBL takes on. That leaves €2,617m for unlisted assets that GBL values at €6,266m, or 42 cents per euro (Opulion calculation: (9,229 − 6,289 − 840 + 517) / 6,266).

This reading assumes that the market pays for GBL's listed shares at their market price, without any discount. It therefore places the whole discount on the unlisted assets. Another reading would spread the discount across the whole, for structural costs, the liquidity of the shares or governance, and would give a higher price to the unlisted assets. The 42 cents are a floor, mainly useful to compare dates with one another.

The third quarter can be read as a subtraction. Between 30 June and 30 September, the market capitalisation lost €1,116m, and the figures reconcile to the nearest million.

Net cash fell by €546m, notably with BUKO, acquired for €512m and taken over on 8 July. The unlisted value recorded by GBL gained €591m. The balance the market attributes to it lost €323m (Opulion calculation). On this reading, a euro that moves from cash to unlisted assets does not keep its price on the stock market.

Recordati could move the boundary again

The shift continues. GBL has invested about €1.0bn in Recordati, of which €350m in shares bought on the market in the second quarter and the balance in the fourth, as detailed in our brief of 6 November. Recordati still appears among the listed shares at 30 September, for €358m. The offer led with CVC met its threshold condition on 23 October, and GBL already lists Recordati among its new direct private assets (presentation of 5 November, slide 24). If GBL's net asset value followed that classification, these amounts would join the unlisted assets, whose share would rise from 49.9% to about 55% of the portfolio, at 30 September values with the fourth-quarter balance at cost, as a scale reference (Opulion calculation: (6,266 + 358 + 650) / (12,555 + 650)).

The half of the portfolio on which the discount falls, on our reading, would thus widen. This is not a discount forecast: the implied price of the unlisted assets moved between 33 and 52 cents in six months, and it depends as much on the values GBL will record as on the share price. Our article of 29 September described the debt held in Recordati's acquisition chain, outside these accounts.

Buying back below net asset value

The discount has another side. When GBL buys back its shares at €71.10 while each one carries €102.0 of net asset value, the remaining shareholders share the difference. At 30 September prices and values, the ninth €500m envelope approved on 5 November would buy about 7.0 million shares and lift net asset value per share outstanding to about €104.0 (Opulion calculation: (12,038 − 500) / (118.0 − 7.0)). Our analysis of 22 October already measured this gain at five holding companies, including GBL. It comes at a cost: each euro spent on buybacks raises net debt without adding assets to the portfolio.

The next pieces of evidence

For GBL shareholders, four milestones will test this reading. On 17 and 18 November, SGS, the largest holding in the portfolio at €2,848m, will hold its Capital Markets Event. The offeror's notice on the reopening of the Recordati offer, which runs until 9 November, will show what share of the capital the acquisition chain has gathered. On 25 February 2027, the annual results will give the next point in this series, with the Recordati balance in the accounts. The last one, with no date, will matter most: the price at which GBL sells its unlisted assets, compared with their published value.

How we calculated

Implied price of the unlisted assets. Market capitalisation, minus listed shares held, minus treasury shares, minus net cash (or plus net debt), divided by the sum of directly held unlisted companies, GBL Capital and Sienna Investment Managers. At 31 December 2025: (10,117 − 6,931 − 938 − 333) / 5,833. At 30 June 2026: (10,345 − 6,556 − 820 − 29) / 5,675. At 30 September 2026: (9,229 − 6,289 − 840 + 517) / 6,266. Removing treasury shares from both the market capitalisation and net asset value gives the same price, since they are counted at the market price on both sides.

Net asset value per share. GBL publishes €99.21 by dividing a net asset value that includes treasury shares by 129.8 million shares issued. Excluding treasury shares on both sides, net asset value is €102.0 per share outstanding, and the corresponding discount about 30% (Opulion calculation).

Rounding. Amounts are published to the nearest million euros and the number of shares to the nearest tenth of a million. Per-share values calculated by Opulion are rounded to the nearest ten cents.