GBL: its 4.1% loan-to-value at 30 September would rise to about 9% with the Recordati balance

At 30 September 2026, GBL reports net debt of €517m, 4.1% of its portfolio, against net cash at the end of 2025. That ratio counts only €350m of the roughly €1.0bn invested in Recordati, the balance having been paid in the fourth quarter. With that balance, it would rise to about 9% (Opulion calculation), ahead of a ninth €500m buyback envelope.

Why it matters for GBL shareholders: the loan-to-value ratio, as GBL calls it, divides the holding company's net debt, its borrowings minus its cash, by the value of its portfolio. It measures the share of assets financed by lenders rather than by shareholders. At 31 December 2025, GBL had €333m of net cash and reported 0.0%. Over nine months, investments absorbed €1,563m, including BUKO (€512m), Rayner (€442m), Recordati (€350m) and its own shares (€223m), and the dividend €665m, against €778m of disposals and distributions, €306m of cash earnings and €302m of other items, mainly timing differences in the upstreaming of GBL Capital distributions. The calculation checks out: 517 divided by 12,555 gives 4.1% (Opulion calculation). The 4.1% at 30 September is a snapshot taken between two payments: it counts the Recordati shares bought on the market in the second quarter, and leaves out the balance paid since.

The 5 November release states that GBL committed "up to €1.4bn in equity" to Recordati, "of which approximately €1.0bn has been invested": €350m in the second quarter, the balance in the fourth. The €350m corresponds to the shares bought on the market, 3.25% of Recordati's capital, carried at €358m in net asset value at 30 September. The balance, about €650m (Opulion calculation: about €1.0bn − €350m), went out after the reporting date. Paying cash for an asset leaves net asset value unchanged on the day of payment, since cash becomes a holding. The ratio, however, rises: at 30 September values, net debt would reach about €1.17bn and the portfolio about €13.2bn, or about 9% (Opulion calculation, as a scale reference, assuming the balance was paid by the holding company and carried at cost, the release being silent on its funding).

The €1.4bn ceiling leaves headroom of about €400m (Opulion calculation), which the release does not tie to any dated payment. Our brief of 27 October calculated a ceiling of about €1.3bn from the 22 May announcement, before the price was raised to €53.00. The holding company ratio also leaves out the debt held in Recordati's acquisition chain, which our article of 29 September described: it measures what GBL owes, not what the group it co-controls owes.

On 5 November, the board of directors approved a ninth envelope of €500m, to be allocated to share buybacks once the eighth has been fully executed. From 1 October to 3 November, GBL bought back 0.8 million of its shares, valued at €63.2m at 3 November. At that date, the eighth envelope, of €598.9m, was 82.1% executed, leaving about €107m to buy back (Opulion calculation: 17.9% × €598.9m). As a scale reference, €500m represents 5.4% (Opulion calculation) of the market capitalisation at 30 September, €9,229m. A buyback raises net debt without adding assets to the portfolio: each euro spent on buybacks weighs more on the ratio than a euro invested.

For GBL shareholders, three pieces of evidence will come in order. The weekly buyback report, the latest dated 2 November, will show the progress of the eighth envelope. The offeror's notice on the reopening of the Recordati offer, which runs until 9 November, will show what share of the capital the acquisition chain has gathered. The third will come on 25 February 2027 with the annual results: the first loan-to-value ratio to count the Recordati balance, and the progress of the eighth and ninth envelopes.