Exor: at Stellantis, North America lifts its operating income by €539m, but cash flow stays negative

In the third quarter of 2026, Stellantis shipped 12% fewer vehicles in North America than a year earlier, but lost only 3% of its revenues there and improved its adjusted operating income there by €539m. Its industrial free cash flow stays negative, at −€4,009m, and Exor, which held 15.5% of its economic rights at 30 June, received €0 of dividends from it in the first half. On the path that leads to Exor's dividend, the quarter moves the margin forward, and cash remains the negative link.

Why it matters for Exor shareholders: at 30 June 2026, Exor held 15.5% of Stellantis's economic rights, a holding of €2,236m, 6.3% of its gross asset value, after a €2,016m fall in value over the half. Stellantis paid it €0 of dividends in the first half, against €306m a year earlier (Exor half-year report, p. 9, 11 and 26). Our brief of 16 October described the path linking the carmaker to Exor: shipments, revenues, margin, cash, then dividend. The quarter sheds light on the first three links: shipments fall, revenues hold up, the margin improves year on year. The fourth stays negative, and the release says nothing about the fifth. The dividend remains a board decision: in the first half of 2025, Stellantis paid €1,962m of dividends, €306m of it to Exor, after industrial free cash flow of about −€6bn in 2024 (Stellantis half-year report, p. 46, and full-year release of 26 February 2025). For Exor shareholders, Stellantis's North American recovery shows in the margin year on year, while its industrial free cash flow stays negative, at −€4,930m over nine months.

The brief of 16 October named three figures to read today. The first is published: North American revenues fall 3%, to €15,586m against €16,087m, while shipments fall 12%, as the group estimated on 13 October. Stellantis attributes the gap to mix, net pricing and currency. Per vehicle shipped, the region's revenues rise from about €39,800 to €43,700, up 9.6% (Opulion calculation: €15,586m divided by 357,000, against €16,087m divided by 404,000, a yardstick that mixes price, mix and currency). From one quarter to the next, however, the North American margin falls, from 1.6% in the second quarter to 0.4% (Opulion calculation: €284m divided by €18,193m, Stellantis half-year report, p. 22). The second figure, dealer stock, is missing: Stellantis only writes that its North American inventory in December 2026 should converge to a level similar to December 2025. The Opulion hypothesis of 16 October, dealers drawing on their stocks, remains to be tested. The third is industrial free cash flow.

Elsewhere, the pattern reverses: Enlarged Europe ships more but swings to an operating loss. The group posts €256m of adjusted operating income, 0.7% of its revenues of €37,611m, a net loss of €453m, and reaffirms its full-year guidance.

Industrial free cash flow, calculated by Stellantis after its investment, is read over three quarters. Our analysis of 5 October noted −€921m in the first half. The figures reconcile: −921 − 4,009 = −€4,930m over nine months, the figure published by the group, against −€7,309m a year earlier (Opulion calculation). Stellantis expects a fourth quarter supported by the seasonality of its working capital, a 2026 flow improved year on year, including about €1.6bn of cash payments related to second-half 2025 charges, then a positive flow in 2027.

For Exor shareholders, two tests will come in order. Stellantis's full-year results, on a date still to be announced, will show whether the fourth quarter has generated enough cash to meet the goal of an improved flow, and whether the board proposes a dividend for 2026. Exor's annual accounts, announced for March 2027, will then give the value of the Stellantis holding at 31 December and its weight in a gross asset value that will by then include the Iveco proceeds, from an offer unconditional since 27 October: €1,057m if the 73,385,580 shares held at 30 June were tendered as Exor had undertaken (Opulion calculation: 73,385,580 × €14.40, Exor half-year report, p. 26).