Brederode: Samsung’s profits soar, but how much does the holding benefit?

Spectacular results at a portfolio company can have a more modest effect on the holding that owns it. The news travels through the share price and then the position’s weight in the portfolio. Samsung’s 8 October earnings guidance offers Brederode shareholders a useful example.

Samsung forecasts third-quarter operating profit of ₩107.4 trillion, equivalent to about $80bn at the exchange rate Reuters reported that day. That is almost nine times the ₩12.17 trillion earned in the same quarter of 2025. Operating profit measures earnings from the business before financing costs and tax.

Demand for memory chips used in AI infrastructure is driving the surge. Brederode held a Samsung position worth €166m at 30 June, making the news relevant. Its significance becomes clearer when placed alongside the holding’s whole portfolio.

The market is looking beyond the record

The record describes the quarter just ended. A share price also reflects what investors expect next. According to Reuters, Samsung’s forecast is around 1.2% above the ₩106.1 trillion LSEG estimate. The gap against expectations is therefore far smaller than the increase over last year.

Kim Seok-hwan, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities, says attention has shifted to how long the growth can last. How durable are today’s high memory prices? What happens if AI investment slows or chip supply catches up?

Samsung also makes smartphones and consumer electronics. Higher memory prices help the chipmaker while raising component costs elsewhere in the group. Detailed results expected on 29 October, according to Reuters, should help separate those business drivers.

Almost 9% of one portfolio, 3.66% of the holding

Brederode owns listed shares alongside private equity funds. Its half-year report records 35,090 Samsung Global Depositary Receipts, or GDRs: certificates representing shares held through a depositary. The €166m position accounted for a reported, rounded 9.0% of the listed securities portfolio.

Net asset value also includes private funds, cash and other items after liabilities. It stood at €4.53bn. Against that wider total, the same Samsung position accounted for 3.66%. The chart explains how two valid percentages can tell different stories.

How a share-price move reaches the holding

Consider a simple scenario. A 10% increase in the euro value of the position, starting from its June value, would add €16.6m. With every other item unchanged, net asset value would rise by around 0.37%. A 10% fall would have the opposite effect.

The same calculation works for any investment holding: multiply a position’s portfolio weight by its change in value to estimate its contribution to the movement in NAV. It is the value of the securities that enters the calculation. Samsung’s profit growth is a separate measure.

The useful next step is to examine the durability of Samsung’s profits, then the actual value of its certificates within Brederode. Other listed positions, currencies and private funds continue to move the portfolio too. Our analysis of Brederode’s discount addresses a different question: the price investors place on the holding as a whole.

How we counted

Samsung’s release contains consolidated estimates ahead of detailed accounts. Year-on-year comparisons use the same quarter of 2025. The dollar equivalent comes from Reuters, at ₩1,339.57 per dollar. Analyst expectations and the discussion of the memory cycle are reported by the agency.

Brederode figures come from pages 5 and 14 of the half-year report published on 10 September, covering 30 June. Calculations use 166 / 1,852.26 and 166 / 4,531.77. Sensitivity uses 16.6 / 4,531.77. Values and weights are historical. Current receipt quantities, their euro prices and the present portfolio remain to be verified before measuring an actual effect. No current movement in Brederode’s share price is attributed to this announcement.