OpenAI at $1.2 trillion? What the new price would really mean for SoftBank

The number is extraordinary: $1.2 trillion. SoftBank shareholders may be tempted to convert that reported OpenAI price directly into a higher net asset value. That would be premature. The better questions are what rights SoftBank will retain, how much more capital it may have to provide, and when a private valuation can become actual liquidity.

The new benchmark is not yet a price

The Financial Times reports that investors have started preliminary discussions about a new OpenAI funding round at a valuation of up to $1.2 trillion. Neither OpenAI nor SoftBank has confirmed the figure. Terms may change and a transaction may not take place.

The previous reported benchmark is the March 2026 round at $852 billion. Moving to $1.2 trillion would be a 40.8% increase. Yet two figures labelled “valuation” are truly comparable only when the share rights, liquidation preferences, anti-dilution protection and amount of new capital are known.

The striking sensitivity of SoftBank's stake

At 30 June, SoftBank Group valued its OpenAI investment at $89.6 billion. Mechanically applying the 40.8% increase would produce about $126.2 billion, or $36.6 billion more.

This Opulion calculation is deliberately a sensitivity, not a net asset value estimate. It assumes four things that cannot yet be verified: identical economic rights, no dilution, a transaction actually closing at $1.2 trillion, and immediate adoption of that price in SoftBank's accounts.

Why a private price does not solve the funding question

Our analysis of SoftBank's first quarter already identified the paradox: unrealised AI gains lift accounting value while investments in OpenAI, ABB Robotics, DigitalBridge and infrastructure require cash. The subsequent review of the new $11.87 billion loan began to document the transition from bridge financing to the durable balance sheet.

That tension remains. SoftBank announced repayment of its $25.9 billion OpenAI bridge facility, while the press subsequently reported a new $11.87 billion loan. Replacing one funding source with another may improve maturities; it does not convert OpenAI's higher value into cash.

The reported price could still help by strengthening the economic value of the asset, supporting future financing and giving lenders a new reference point. The trade-off is greater concentration of net asset value in a private investment that is difficult to monetise and may require substantial further capital.

What changes, and what does not yet

The new benchmark strengthens the case that OpenAI may become one of SoftBank's defining assets. A completed transaction at this level could support net asset value and reduce concern about SoftBank's entry price. It would still provide no liquidity to SoftBank until shares are sold, distributions are received or financing is raised against the asset.

For shareholders, the four variables are therefore straightforward: final price, ownership retained, additional capital invested and the route to liquidity. The $1.2 trillion figure matters. It is not yet realised value creation.

This content is general financial information. It is not investment advice, a solicitation or a personalised recommendation.