Scottish Mortgage: SpaceX commits to leasing $40bn of GPUs, 2.4 quarters of its AI investment

On 24 October, SpaceX committed to leasing graphics processing units (GPUs) from an entity managed by Apollo, for about $40bn of principal to be repaid over about five years from 2027. As a yardstick, that is 2.4 quarters of its investment in AI at the third-quarter pace (Opulion calculation). For Scottish Mortgage, its largest holding would add quarterly rent to the equity and debt funding its shift.

Why it matters for Scottish Mortgage shareholders: at 30 September 2026, before the third-quarter results and the commitment letter, the SpaceX holding was worth about £2.8bn (Opulion calculation: 15.0% of £18.67bn). Our brief of 22 October showed that AI absorbed 84% of the quarter's investment, an effort funded, beyond operating cash flow, by the IPO and by debt. The lease would add a further funder, the lessor, alongside shareholders and lenders. The 8-K describes no share issuance: the lease would not dilute the trust's stake in SpaceX's capital. It would create quarterly rent, generally made up of one-twentieth of the financed cost of each tranche, a charge at a fixed rate on the outstanding lease balance and certain ongoing costs. If all lease schedules commenced in the first half of 2027, as the 8-K expects, principal alone would come to about $2bn a quarter, 46% of average quarterly operating cash flow over the first nine months of 2026 (Opulion calculation: 2 divided by a third of $13.1bn), a sensitivity and not a forecast. If the agreement is signed, the trust's largest holding would fund part of its compute through rent due every quarter, whatever the GPUs earn (Opulion reading of the 8-K formula).

According to the 8-K filed on 26 October, the lessor would acquire GPU pods and related equipment, for use at data centres selected by SpaceX, and lease them to the company under a finance lease. The equipment would be delivered in tranches, each under its own schedule of about five to five and a quarter years, and rent would be paid quarterly in advance. The fixed rate will be set at pricing, before the master lease is signed. Closing is expected before year end, subject to conditions, and the lease schedules would commence in the first half of 2027, upon delivery of the GPUs. The binding commitment letter sets the main terms, other than the rate: the master lease has yet to be signed. The 8-K warns that the transaction could close on different terms or timing, or fail to close.

The third quarter published on 20 October gives the scale. SpaceX invested $19.6bn, of which $16.4bn in its SI segment, for 'Super Intelligence', previously reported as artificial intelligence (p. 9), and $48.1bn over nine months, against $13.1bn of operating cash flow (p. 4 and 12). The $40bn represents 2.4 quarters of SI segment investment at the third-quarter pace (Opulion calculation: 40 divided by 16.4), as a yardstick: the 8-K does not specify which segment the GPUs will serve. At 30 September, SpaceX held $51.3bn of cash and $38.6bn of marketable securities (p. 11).

For Scottish Mortgage shareholders, three tests lie ahead. In early November, if the 2025 timetable is repeated (half-year results published on 7 November 2025), the trust's half-year report, made up to 30 September, could show how its managers read the financing of their largest holding. Pricing, which comes before the master lease is signed, expected before year end, will set the rate, and with it the cost of the lease. SpaceX's accounts for the first half of 2027 would show the lease schedules starting and the share of operating cash flow their rent absorbs.