Latour: a SEK 44m customs refund would weigh SEK 616m in Hultafors's value, at the mean multiple

Between 30 June and 30 September 2026, Latour's estimated net asset value rose by SEK 8,328m, to SEK 216 per share, including SEK 4,688m from its unlisted subsidiaries, or 56% (Opulion calculation). A SEK 44m refund of US customs duties would count 14 times in Hultafors's value at the mean multiple, or SEK 616m (Opulion view and calculation). Latour attributes the subsidiaries' rise to earnings rather than changes in multiples, and the calculation confirms it in total, but this refund will have left the trailing twelve months by the report of 9 November 2027.

Why it matters for Latour shareholders: at 30 September 2026, the subsidiaries are worth SEK 71,867m, the middle of a range of SEK 63,223m to SEK 80,511m, or 52% of Latour's estimated net asset value (Opulion calculation: 71,867 over 137,976). No market sets this value: Latour multiplies each subsidiary's adjusted operating profit for the last twelve months by a range of multiples that it establishes. The published net asset value runs from SEK 129,332m to SEK 146,620m. Half of that gap, SEK 8,644m (Opulion calculation: 146,620 − 129,332, divided by 2), exceeds the SEK 8,328m gained in the quarter. The quarter's gain fits within the estimation margin Latour publishes, and each krona of subsidiary earnings counts between 12 and 22 times in their value.

Our brief of 16 October gave the visible part of the quarter, the SEK 2,919m rise in the listed portfolio, and pointed to the 3 November report for the rest. The subsidiaries add SEK 4,688m, the fall in net debt excluding leases (IFRS 16), from SEK 12,281m to SEK 11,563m, adds SEK 718m, and the small holdings SEK 3m. The four contributions reconcile exactly with the rise in net asset value (Opulion calculation, p. 11 of both reports).

The report says the value of the subsidiaries rose on earnings rather than changes in multiples (p. 11). Those multiples, which take account of share prices at 30 September, nonetheless moved at five of the seven subsidiaries. Bemsiq and Caljan go from 17-21 to 18-22, Nord-Lock from 15-19 to 16-20, while Hultafors falls from 13-17 to 12-16 and Innovalift from 14-18 to 13-17. At the middle of each range, the increases add SEK 1,482m and the decreases remove SEK 1,527m, or −SEK 45m net, and earnings make the remaining SEK 4,733m (Opulion calculation: new pro forma twelve-month earnings multiplied by the change in multiple, the rest attributed to earnings, including scope effects). Latour's statement therefore holds in total, through offsetting.

Hultafors, at SEK 15,498m, shows the limit of the method. Its adjusted twelve-month earnings go from SEK 1,016m to SEK 1,107m, or SEK 91m more, close to the gap between Q3 2026 and Q3 2025 (304 − 214 = SEK 90m). The report states that operating profit benefited from a SEK 44m refund of IEEPA duties, named after the US emergency economic powers act, without naming the period (p. 8). The 19 August report had already flagged SEK 13m in Q2 (p. 8), and nothing indicates whether the 44 includes it. We read this SEK 44m as part of adjusted earnings (Opulion view): the definition removes only acquisition-related depreciation and impairment and acquisition and restructuring costs (p. 26), and over nine months adjusted earnings exceed operating profit by SEK 5m, 806 against 801 (p. 8). Without this SEK 44m, Hultafors would be worth SEK 14,882m, below the SEK 15,240m of 30 June (Opulion calculation: 1,063 × 14), whereas the published value rises by SEK 258m. In the other direction, Caljan bore a net charge of about SEK 20m in Q2, a provision for underpaid US steel duties less IEEPA refunds, and the 19 August report places it in adjusted earnings (p. 7). It takes about SEK 400m from Caljan at its mean multiple of 20, which leaves about SEK 216m net of the two items (Opulion calculation: 20 × 20, then 616 − 400). The report says only that multiples may be adjusted when those of comparable companies span a very wide range, to avoid unreasonable values (p. 11).

For Latour shareholders, three tests will come in order. On 9 February 2027, the year-end report will show whether year-end earnings support the value of the subsidiaries, with Bolt and Nut, a Nord-Lock acquisition completed on 2 November at an undisclosed price (p. 4). On 9 November 2027, the nine-month report will be the first whose trailing twelve months exclude Q3 2026 and, at the latest, this refund. The last has no date: a price paid by a third party for a subsidiary would test against the market the SEK 71,867m Latour estimates, more than half of its net asset value.