HAL: SBM lifts its guidance to about $7.9bn through construction, not through leasing its fleet

On 12 November 2026, SBM Offshore raised its 2026 Directional revenue guidance from about $7.6bn to about $7.9bn, and its split puts the whole rise in construction. For HAL, which owns 24.2% of it, SBM was 7.0% of net asset value at 30 June 2026. Leasing and operating the fleet is still expected to bring about $2.4bn, as in August.

Why it matters for HAL shareholders: HAL owns 24.2% of SBM Offshore (2026 half-year report, p. 25). The market value of the stake rose from €1,012.7m at 31 December 2025 to €1,239.2m at 30 June 2026 (note 6, p. 20), and HAL attributes the rise in the stock market value of its quoted interests, from €5.1bn to €6.1bn over the half, mainly to Vopak, SBM and Siltronic (p. 4). The raised guidance therefore says more about SBM's construction work this year than about the rents from its fleet, expected at the same level as in August.

SBM designs, builds, leases and operates floating oil and gas production units, known as FPSOs. It reports two segments: Lease and Operate, meaning the rents and services of units in operation, and Turnkey, meaning the construction and sale of units. "Directional" revenue is SBM's own pro forma accounting policy: all lease contracts are treated as operating leases, and units co-owned with partners count for SBM's share (SBM third-quarter trading update, note 1, p. 6). Over nine months it reached $6,337m, up 77%. Lease and Operate made $1,772m (+10%), Turnkey $4,565m (+132%), and the figures add up: 1,772 + 4,565 = $6,337m. SBM attributes the Turnkey jump mainly to the sale of FPSO ONE GUYANA in February 2026, the front-end engineering (FEED) contracts for Longtail, the SEAP I and II contracts and the sale of 45% of the FSO Chalchi unit to NYK, partly offset by three FPSOs delivered in 2025 (p. 2).

The sequence explains the move. In August, SBM had raised its guidance from "above $6.9bn" to about $7.6bn, of which about $2.4bn from Lease and Operate and about $5.2bn from Turnkey (half-year release of 6 August, p. 1 and 6). On 12 November, the split became about $2.4bn and $5.5bn, a rise SBM bases on updated progress forecasts for its project portfolio (p. 4). Directional EBITDA guidance, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, goes from about $1.9bn to above $1.95bn (p. 1 and 4), after an increase from about $1.8bn to about $1.9bn in August (release of 6 August, p. 1). SBM notes that Longtail, SEAP I and SEAP II, below the 25% completion threshold, will not contribute to 2026 EBITDA (12 November update, p. 2 and 4). Directional net debt fell from $5.7bn at the end of 2025 to $3.6bn at the end of September (−36%, SBM's figure), mainly thanks to the sale of FPSO ONE GUYANA and the repayment of the related debt (p. 2).

For HAL shareholders, three dates will follow in order. On 26 November, HAL will publish its third-quarter update, on the day HAL Trust's extraordinary meeting is due to vote on ending the trust, which would turn each unit into a directly listed HAL Holding share (our news item of 16 October). On 18 February 2027, SBM will publish its annual results, which will show whether the raised guidance was met. On 25 March 2027, HAL's annual results will give SBM's value in its net asset value at 31 December 2026, to set against €1,239.2m at 30 June.