GBL: adidas raised its outlook by about €200m, the equivalent of the third-quarter customs duty refund

On 29 October, adidas confirmed record third-quarter operating profit of €1,008m and its full-year outlook raised on 20 October from about €2.3bn to about €2.5bn. A customs duty refund of about €200m makes up almost three quarters of the year-on-year increase and is equivalent to the upgrade (Opulion calculation). For GBL, whose adidas stake made up 8.7% of net asset value at 30 June, the record rests first of all on this refund.

Why it matters for GBL shareholders: at 30 June 2026, GBL held 3.53% of adidas's share capital, a stake of €1,140m, 8.7% of its net asset value of €13,079m (Opulion calculation: 1,140 / 13,079, GBL half-year report, p. 17). The stake had gained 6% over the half (half-year report, p. 17). What comes back to GBL is the stock market value of its shares and the dividend. Our analysis of 2 September recalled that GBL had already sold €1.7bn of adidas shares in 2024. Excluding the refund, adidas's outlook would be about €2.3bn, the level before 20 October, and the quarter's operating margin that of a year earlier (Opulion calculation).

The refund concerns customs duties paid on imports into the United States. In the third quarter, adidas received the majority of its claims and recorded about €200m, which contributed to the improvement in its gross margin (p. 5), as well as about €10m of interest income related to US tariffs in its financial result (p. 6). The gross margin rises from 51.8% to 54.3%. Excluding the refund, it would be about 51.6%, slightly below that of a year earlier (Opulion calculation: (3,941 − 200) / €7,252m, p. 10). The operating margin rises from 11.1% to 13.9% (p. 10), and would be about 11.1% excluding the refund (Opulion calculation: (1,008 − 200) / €7,252m). Of the €272m increase in operating profit (Opulion calculation: 1,008 − 736), the refund makes up almost three quarters (200 / 272), and the part excluding the refund would be about €72m (1,008 − 200 − 736), for revenues up 9.4%, at €7,252m (Opulion calculation: 7,252 / 6,630 − 1).

The outlook reads as an addition, which the release itself sets out (p. 9). With the upgrade of 20 October, adidas added to its previous outlook of about €2.3bn some €100m of higher profitability from its growth and the refund of about €200m, giving €2.6bn. It also decided to reinvest about €100m in the fourth quarter, hence about €2.5bn. The two movements of about €100m offset each other, and the rise in the outlook is equivalent to the refund.

For GBL shareholders, three tests will come in order. On 5 November, GBL will publish its net asset value at 30 September, with the value of the adidas stake and its share of the capital at that date, before the figures of 20 and 29 October. adidas's full-year results, whose date has not yet been published, will then show whether the margin excluding the refund improves in the fourth quarter, despite the reinvestment of about €100m planned for that quarter. The third will come with the dividend adidas will propose for 2026, the part of these earnings that would flow back to GBL in cash.