Exor: €125m bought back in 23 of 49 possible sessions, and half of the €500m has now been launched

On 23 October, Exor completed the first tranche of its share buyback: €125m in 23 sessions, when the end-of-November deadline allowed 49. The second, also of up to €125m, started on 26 October and brings the amount launched to €250m of the €500m programme. At the pace of the first, it would be completed around 25 November, more than a month before its deadline (Opulion hypothesis).

Why it matters for Exor shareholders: the 1,795,096 shares bought back represent 0.86% of the 207,779,752 ordinary shares, and treasury shares reach 3.29% of ordinary shares after the purchases of 23 October. Their average price of €69.63 is 55.9% below the NAV of €157.9 per share at 30 June. With NAV unchanged, the tranche would add about €0.79 to each remaining share, or 0.50% of that NAV per share (Opulion calculation: 1,795,096 shares multiplied by the €88.27 gap, divided by the 200,946,280 shares outstanding after the buyback, that is 207,779,752 less 6,833,472), against 0.30% at 9 October in our comparison of five programmes. The programme remains one of up to €500m, but its execution is running ahead of its deadlines: the earlier a tranche ends, the sooner Exor takes out of circulation shares paid for, so far, at less than half of its NAV per share at 30 June.

The five weekly reports trace the series: 13%, 23%, 24%, 26%, then 13% of the tranche (Opulion calculation, rounded). Our brief of 19 October placed the end around 21 October, at a pace of €6.6m per session. The end came on 23 October, two sessions later. After €6.5m per session on 19 and 20 October, only €2.7m remained under the ceiling, spread over three sessions. Opulion reading: this dip reflects the tranche's ceiling, not a change of pace. The figures reconcile to the share: 5,038,376 treasury shares before the first purchase, plus 1,795,096 bought back, make the 6,833,472 published on 26 October.

The second tranche keeps the same framework: a discretionary mandate, under which a financial institution decides when to buy within parameters set in advance, including during closed periods ahead of a results publication. Its end-of-December deadline leaves about 48 sessions, almost as many as the first tranche's 49. To use them all, €2.6m per session would be enough, a little less than half of the first tranche's €5.4m (Opulion calculation: €125m divided by 48 sessions, against €125m divided by 23 sessions). At the same pace as the first, it would be completed at its 23rd session, on 25 November.

For Exor shareholders, three facts will settle the matter, in this order. The final results of Tata Motors' offer for Iveco, due by 7.29am on 29 October after provisional results showing the threshold met, will show whether Exor will receive €1,057m on 30 October (Opulion calculation: 73,385,580 shares held at 30 June, at €14.40). The report expected on Monday 2 November will show whether the mandated institution returns to a pace of €5m to €6m per session. The third will take longer: what becomes of the €250m that remains to be launched by the annual results in March 2027.