SoftBank: two debt ratios, two different questions

SoftBank can repay a huge loan without reducing net debt. It depends on where the money comes from: using cash reduces both debt and liquidity; borrowing elsewhere shifts the financing. That is the starting point of our analysis of the OpenAI bridge repayment.

There is now another perspective. SoftBank's official ratings table, updated on 11 September 2026, includes a BB+ rating from Fitch. For shareholders in the Japanese group, whose investments include Arm and OpenAI, the relevance is practical: financing these commitments also depends on lenders' confidence.

The holding company's snapshot, the lender's scenario

LTV, or loan-to-value, compares debt with the value of the assets supporting it. SoftBank's published ratio uses adjusted net debt and adjusted equity holdings. At 30 June, ¥10,810 billion divided by ¥83,110 billion gives 13.0%. The denominator is neither revenue nor net asset value after debt.

These figures do not establish that leverage has doubled. A proper reconciliation would first align dates, the treatment of secured financing and other adjustments, then separate future investments. That reconciliation has not been established here.

What shareholders should watch next

The ratio can also improve because listed assets rise in value. In the first quarter, SoftBank explains that higher holdings values more than offset the effect of new investments on LTV. A better ratio therefore need not mean less debt in absolute terms.

The next crucial evidence will be the source of the $25.9 billion repayment scheduled for 15 September, followed by funding for October's additional OpenAI investment. Asset sales, available cash and a new bond leave different degrees of financial freedom.

Opulion's question is straightforward: once the loan is settled, how much room will SoftBank retain to invest without being forced to sell assets? The new rating adds a perspective. It provides neither an equity valuation nor a guarantee that the AI strategy will succeed.