Scottish Mortgage: in Q3, AI was 52% of revenue and 84% of capital spending at SpaceX, its largest holding

SpaceX reported on 20 October third-quarter revenue of $14.6bn, of which $7.6bn, or 52%, came from its artificial intelligence segment, against $0.8bn a year earlier. For Scottish Mortgage, whose largest holding was SpaceX at 15.0% of total assets on 30 September, AI now sells more than space and connectivity combined, and takes 84% of the quarter's capital expenditure. The shift is funded with money from the stock market listing and from debt: $48.1bn invested in nine months, against $13.1bn of operating cash flow.

Why it matters for Scottish Mortgage shareholders: on 30 September 2026, the SpaceX holding was worth about £2.8bn (Opulion calculation: 15.0% of £18.67bn), against about £3.1bn and 17.5% of total assets of £17.75bn on 31 August (portfolio valuation at 31/08/2026, p. 2). The weight fell because the holding lost about £0.3bn while total assets rose (Opulion calculation). The trust's documents do not say how much of this decline might come from any sales of shares. A 10% move in the SpaceX share price would shift the trust's total assets by about 1.5% (Opulion calculation: 10% of 15.0%), a sensitivity and not a forecast. In the third quarter, the trust's largest holding was first and foremost an artificial intelligence business by revenue and capital expenditure, and it funds that effort through its shareholders and its lenders.

The SI segment, for "Super Intelligence", was called "Artificial Intelligence" until the previous quarter (p. 9). SpaceX attributes the growth of its revenue to new cloud services agreements, the acquisition on 14 August of Cursor, the coding software publisher, at an implied equity value of $60bn, and the adoption of the Grok assistant (p. 7 and 8). The quarter's $7.6bn includes $0.5bn of advertising and $0.6bn contributed by Cursor since the acquisition. Our analysis of 19 September described hosted computing as a third layer, alongside launches and Starlink. The quarter puts the SI segment, which houses it, first by revenue, ahead of space and connectivity combined, $7.0bn (Opulion calculation: 1.8 + 5.2, p. 4), against $2.6bn for AI in the second quarter.

The income statement and the cash flow statement tell two stories. Income from operations reached $2.8bn. Net income of $4.4bn adds $1.6bn from elsewhere: $0.2bn of net interest, $1.0bn of net other income and a $0.4bn tax benefit (Opulion calculation: 2.8 + 0.2 + 1.0 + 0.4 = $4.4bn, the figures reconcile with the income statement, p. 10). Over nine months, capital expenditure reached $48.1bn, 3.7 times operating cash flow (Opulion calculation: 48.1 over 13.1). The listing brought in $85.7bn net, and debt and other financing obligations $51.8bn, against $39.8bn of repayments over the same period (p. 12).

For Scottish Mortgage shareholders, three publications will settle the matter. On 22 October, the net asset value for the 21st should be the first to measure the market reaction to these results, released on the 20th after the New York close. In early November, if the 2025 timetable is repeated (half-year results of 7 November 2025), the trust's half-year report, made up to 30 September, will say how its managers read this change of nature. Around mid-November, the October monthly factsheet will give SpaceX's new weight. The last proof will take longer: what the $48.1bn invested in nine months will earn, on which the value of the trust's largest holding will depend.