Latour: at HMS, orders exceed sales by SEK 80m, about SEK 70m of which was placed early by some customers

HMS Networks booked SEK 1,104m of orders against SEK 1,024m of sales in the third quarter, a gap of SEK 80m, about SEK 70m of which, by its own estimate, came from orders placed early by some customers concerned about longer lead times and its price increases taking effect on 1 January 2027. For Latour, which owns about 26% of HMS, the holding was worth SEK 7,093m on 30 September, or 9.2% of its listed portfolio. Without that advance, orders would roughly equal sales: the demand supporting this holding will be measured after the price increases.

Why it matters for Latour shareholders: on 30 September 2026, Latour held 13,014,532 HMS shares, about 26% of the share capital (HMS report, p. 10). At that day's price of SEK 545, three weeks before the report of 21 October, they were worth SEK 7,093m, or 9.2% of its listed portfolio of SEK 77,383m (Opulion calculation on the table published by Latour). As a scale reference, at a different date, they represent about 5.5% of the estimated net asset value of SEK 129,648m at 30 June, the latest published by Latour (Opulion calculation). Our brief of 16 October showed that HMS had contributed SEK 540m to the rise of the listed portfolio in the third quarter. The quarter reported on 21 October, after this valuation date, contains an advance of orders that HMS quantifies itself, born of concerns over longer lead times and of the price increases announced to offset its costs.

Orders are firm purchase orders received from customers, for later delivery. Sales are what has been delivered and invoiced. The ratio between the two, which manufacturers call 'book-to-bill', rises above 1 when the order book fills up. At HMS, it reached 1.08 in the third quarter. Removing the roughly SEK 70m placed early brings orders down to SEK 1,034m and the ratio to 1.01, a gap of about SEK 10m with sales (Opulion calculation): the advance accounts for about 88% of the SEK 80m gap (Opulion calculation: 70 over 80). If these orders were only brought forward, they would be missing from the quarter in which they would normally have been placed (Opulion hypothesis). The HMS report does not say which quarter.

The chain has three links, all described by HMS. Component prices and tariffs, which now affect a broader share of products, weighed on the gross margin: 62.7% in the third quarter, against 64.1% a year earlier (p. 2 and 3). This rate includes a SEK 3m refund of US import tariffs: excluding it, HMS reports an underlying gross margin of 62.4% (p. 3). To offset this, HMS announced price increases from 1 January 2027. Some customers then ordered early. According to the report, the gross margin is expected to remain under pressure in the fourth quarter, and potentially into 2027, until the new prices have had full effect.

For Latour shareholders, three publications will settle the matter. On 3 November, Latour's third-quarter report will give net asset value at 30 September, in which HMS is included at its market price. On 28 January 2027, the HMS year-end report will show fourth-quarter orders, still before the price increases. Then, on 15 April 2027, the HMS first-quarter report, the first at the new prices, will show demand without the advance, the demand supporting a holding of SEK 7,093m in Latour's portfolio on 30 September.